As we approach the ‘business end’ of the 20/21 Premier League season, we sit ninth in the table, closer to Fulham in the bottom three than Manchester City in first, and whilst City have established their dominance over every team in the division courtesy of Pep Guardiola, it does not make it any easier to accept. We have had plenty of disappointing moments this season which have contributed to our league position, but it would have been hard to predict that back in September when speaking to fans, who were filled with optimism coming off the back of a record fourteenth FA Cup win, and had received news that club captain and talismanic forward Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang had signed a contract extension.
So where did it all go wrong? That is something that could take days to explain but when pondering just how we managed to take eight points out of a possible thirty-six from late September right up to Boxing Day, it is quite clear to see why it happened. Mikel Arteta and his coaching staff were out of ideas, the situation looked helpless and some may argue that as the weeks went on, the team selections got more puzzling, the performances continued to lack any kind of tactical discipline and the players looked mentally weaker by the game, any other club would have relieved Arteta of his duties.
However, in April Arteta remains at the club, how close he was to being sacked we will never know, although since Boxing Day we have collected twenty-eight of a possible forty-five points, the fourth best in the Premier League since then, so what has actually changed? I believe it has all come down to a shift in mentality – which has been embodied in two young Hale End graduates, Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith Rowe. The latter made the Premier League starting XI for the first time this season, in our 3-1 win over Chelsea on Boxing Day in what felt like a last roll of the dice from Arteta, and whilst Smith Rowe’s introduction has helped the team function in a far more efficient way, providing an option between the lines and making himself a creative focal point, I believe the biggest difference made by him and Saka has been their mentalities and attitude towards the game. The pair make us play The Arsenal Way, sharing an almost telepathic understanding of each other’s games and combining to give us the attacking edge over our opponents. Saka’s move to the right wing has completely reinvented his impact on games, making him undroppable in Arteta’s eyes and Smith Rowe has also established himself as a key player which has seemingly forced some senior players at the club to up their games, having an overall positive impact and helping us out of the slump in which we had found ourselves. In fact, veteran striker Alexandre Lacazette echoed this point in his post-match interview after our 3-1 win over Leicester at the end of February, saying “The senior players, we need to be ready, to be good, we don’t need to rely only on the youngsters” emphasising the much-needed change in attitude that Smith Rowe and Saka have brought to the side since the new year – the squad is far more competitive now.
As well as a change in attitude, Arteta’s Boxing Day shake-up allowed for a tactical switch up which has been aided by Thomas Partey & Kieran Tierney’s improved availability, combined with Saka’s move to RW and the introduction of a true #10 in Smith Rowe. An unexpected addition in the form of Real Madrid’s Martin Ødegaard on loan until the end of the season has also helped heal our wounds, largely caused by a lack of creativity in the first half of the season. From September to December once Arteta’s 3-4-3 had been found out we were a soulless, creatively void, toothless side with nearly every player underperforming massively. The move to what lines up as a 4-2-3-1, but can be described as a 3-2-5 when in possession, has given new purpose to many players within the squad and helped maximise what they offer. A great example of our best XI (bar Lacazette starting over Aubameyang) in this shape was in our North London Derby victory over Spurs, where despite the fairly mundane scoreline, we were far superior throughout the game and impressed many fans and critics.
https://twitter.com/ncstef16/status/1371838317285801988
As you can see in the Tweet embedded above, in possession we adopt a back 3, with Granit Xhaka shifting to LCB to provide cover for Tierney who is pushed high and wide, often higher than the winger starting ahead of him. The starting LW has to be comfortable with dropping deep and receiving the ball from Gabriel or Xhaka in this system and then combining with Tierney on the flank, or exchanging passes in central areas (why I feel Smith Rowe & Willian are best suited to this role). Partey is tasked with controlling the midfield, a job he is supported in by the RCM, Ødegaard (a position he excelled in at Real Sociedad last season in a 4-3-3) or from Xhaka in a double pivot. Partey looks excellent whilst breaking up play, passing forward with great precision and carrying the ball using his effective dribbling. Ødegaard has licence to split the opposing defence with accurate long forward passes, as well as carrying the ball into dangerous areas where he can then slide an attacker in who is making a run through on goal, he also provides cover when the opponent is in possession, with his solid defensive understanding. Cedric overlaps but in a more conservative way than Tierney, often only getting forward when absolutely necessary, whereas Tierney is tasked with getting forward to create an overload at every opportunity. Saka cuts in and drifts into space between the opposing fullback and centre back but is equally comfortable stretching the pitch and crossing the ball from the touchline or dropping into midfield to combine with Ødegaard, and whilst he has scored plenty of goals since moving to the right, his main task is creating chances for the centre forward. Then comes the role of the CF, whether that be Aubameyang, Lacazette or whoever else, it is simple, put the ball in the back of the net. However, since the new year there has been a big disparity in the amount of chances we have created compared to the amount of goals that we have scored, and our two experienced centre forwards must step up if we are to have a successful end to the campaign.
Now onto my glimmer of hope for this season, the Europa League. A competition we have unfortunately had the displeasure of becoming familiar with is heating up for yet another year, and as things stand despite a second home defeat in two years to Olympiakos, we have progressed to the quarter-finals, facing Slavia Praha of the Czech Republic, who shouldn’t be underestimated. In this season’s campaign alone they have eliminated high-flying Leicester City and Steven Gerrard’s title winning Rangers side. As well as this they eliminated Europa League royalty Sevilla in the 18/19 campaign and tested eventual winners Chelsea to the limit in the same season. If we are to be victorious over the Czech champions, we will face either Dinamo Zagreb – the side responsible for knocking Spurs out in the Round of 16, or Unai Emery’s Villarreal, in what would be a two-legged tie of battles on and off the pitch, with a lot of players eager to prove a point to their former boss. If we find ourselves in Gdansk come May, the opponent will be one of Manchester United, Ajax, Roma, or Granada, with Ole Gunnar Solksjaer’s side being touted as favourites to win the tournament, just as they did in 2017.
That is enough about the opposition though, what about ourselves? The Europa League group stage provided some respite for October to early December’s pathetic Premier League performances, as we picked up maximum points, with a goal difference of fifteen. After coasting to the Round of 32 we faced Benfica, and in the end just about clinched qualification to the Round of 16, with a late Aubameyang goal after a fightback from a two goal deficit on aggregate. However, whilst that might sound quite impressive, the truth is that we gifted the goals away via a penalty, direct free kick and a Dani Ceballos mistake that presented Rafa Silva of Benfica an unmissable opportunity. Whilst our Premier League campaign has been littered with errors of the sort, we must cut them out if we want any sort of chance of winning the Europa League.
The same mistakes also featured in our disappointing 1-1 draw with Burnley and 3-1 win over Olympiakos in Greece. There is only so far you can go with these costly errors in knockout football, and our luck will not last forever. It is also worth noting that those two mistakes involved Bernd Leno and a midfielder coming short to receive the ball, an issue of communication and decision making shared between Leno, Ceballos and Xhaka (although in our previous two fixtures it seems apparent Arteta has addressed this). Lastly and most importantly, if we are to go the distance in Europe this season, we will need Aubameyang to be at his unstoppable best. So far his jump in form has coincided with our knockout games in the Europa League, and if he can consistently deliver goals our chances of success increase massively
On the other hand, despite us needing Aubameyang to step up to the plate in this vital part of the season, it is worth noting that we cannot afford to be overly reliant on him, as we were last season in our FA Cup triumph particularly. My reason for this is simple: winning the Europa League would be brilliant for this football club for so many reasons, the biggest for me being revenue and of course, Champions League football finally back at The Emirates. But, if we win via an Aubameyang carry job, it may just be a more extreme version of last season – where we papered over some enormous cracks with a late season upturn in form to win a trophy. I do accept that this could be a little bit different, in that the owners have demonstrated great faith in Arteta to be their man, so would surely more than sufficiently back him come the summer, especially with the extra revenue we would receive and the fact we would have to compete at Europe’s elite level again (changing the calibre of our targets), but I would also be sceptical if come May we are flying home from Gdansk with the Europa League trophy having finished in mid table. Would we really be ready? Could we make that jump? Who knows, and for what it’s worth as I have mentioned, our season has been littered with awful refereeing, individual errors, the lot. But we still aren’t in 9th by coincidence. Progression is the key word here, and Arsenal football club has regressed almost every year since 2016 bar the 18-19 season (in terms of league finish). All good projects continue progressing in one way or another so for me, we have to match last years finish or better still, try and salvage a 6th place from this season, we cannot stagnate and we definitely cannot continue to move backwards. Furthermore, we cannot afford to put all of our eggs into the Europa League basket, especially if we are trying to learn from previous errors. We must finish in a strong way, but make sure we start next season even stronger – a repeat of this year would be unforgivable.
So, to answer the question which titled this article, I believe us Arsenal fans should feel quietly optimistic as there are some really positive signs, but remember the realistic context of the situation. As for the pessimism, I understand it and it is up to Arsenal to remove that doubt, some fans will only trust if they are given a reason too and the club need to realise this. For the rest of the season though, regardless of your thoughts, back the boys, back the manager and back the club. Let’s take it game by game and see where we end up.
Joe Writes Football 